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Research on water disasters characteristics and rainfall warning threshold on the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway
ZHANG Di, QU Xiaoli, ZHANG Zhongjie, ZHANG Jinman, WANG Jie, YOU Qi
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2022, 40 (4): 677-682.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-04-0677
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Based on the record data of water disasters and the 5-min precipitation of 40 meteorological observation stations along the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway from 2017 to 2019, the characteristics of railway water disasters and precipitation distribution were analyzed, then the three precipitation factors including continuous precipitation, the hourly maximum precipitation and the 24-hour precipitation were counted, the rainfall warning thresholds of no warning, patrol warning, speed limit warning and blockade warning of railway sections in plains and mountainous areas were formulated by using the mean-standard deviation method and the maximum value method. The results show that the water disasters of the Shuozhou-Huanghua Railway mainly occurred in July and August, and the duration of precipitation was mostly within 48 hours. The precipitation types causing water disasters were mainly local rainstorm, short-time heavy precipitation and long-duration precipitation, the railway water disasters in plain sections were mainly caused by local rainstorm, but the main cause of mountainous sections was long-duration precipitation. For railway section in the plain, the accuracy rate of patrol warning was 88.5%, the false rate was 11.5%, the accuracy rate of speed limit warning was 100%, for the railway section in the mountainous, the accuracy of patrols warning was 88.9% and the false rate was 11.1%. The rainfall warning threshold for railway sections in plains and mountainous areas could provide reference for safe running and efficient operation of railway.

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Characteristics of Expressway Traffic Accident and Meteorological Warning Model Based on Logistic Regression in Hebei Province
WANG Jie, QU Xiaoli, ZHANG Jinman
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2020, 38 (2): 339-345.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2020)-02-0339
Abstract430)      PDF(pc) (665KB)(1951)       Save
Based on the traffic accidents data on expressway of Hebei Province and conventional observation data at 109 national weather stations from October 2015 to October 2018, the temporal variation characteristics of expressway traffic accidents and the relationship with meteorological factors in summer and winter half years were contrastively analyzed, firstly. Then, the meteorological factors which had obvious influence on traffic accidents were selected by principal component analysis method and the binary Logistic regression model was introduced to establish the meteorological early warning models of expressway traffic accidents in Hebei Province in summer and winter half years, respectively. Finally, the accuracy of two models was tested. The results show that the diurnal and monthly change characteristics of traffic accidents were obvious on expressway of Hebei Province. The frequency of traffic accident in summer half year was 1.4 times more than that in winter half year, and the monthly fluctuation in summer half year was weaker than that in winter half year. The diurnal variation of traffic accidents in summer and winter half years presented  ‘M’ pattern distribution. The traffic accidents in the daytime were more than that in the nighttime, the peak value appeared at 10:00 BST and 15:00 BST, and the traffic accidents at each time in summer half year (except from 18:00 BST to 20:00 BST) were higher than that in winter half year. The meteorological early warning model of expressway traffic accidents in Hebei integrated humidity, precipitation, wind speed and air pressure factors, while the temperature factor was also introduced in model in winter half year. The prediction accuracy of early warning model was above 99% to the samples less than or equal to the mode of traffic accidents, while that was lower to the samples above the mode, but the overall accuracy was still above 80%, which indicated that the model had a certain reference significance to expressway traffic early warning.
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Characteristics Analysis and Forecast of Thick Fog Along the
 Expressway of Hebei Province in Autumn and Winter
ZHANG Di1, QU Xiaoli1,2, ZHANG Jinman1, ZHAO Zengbao1, ZHANG Chengwei1
Journal of Arid Meteorology    DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2017)-01-0051
Relationship Between Power Load Characteristics and Temperature in North Hebei
ZHANG Yanheng, YANG Linhan, WU Huiqin, ZHANG Jinman
Journal of Arid Meteorology    DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2016)-05-0881
Variation Characteristics of Road Surface Temperature on Highway of Hebei Province and Its Prediction Model
WU Huiqin,MA Cuiping,YANG Rongfang,ZHANG Jinman
Journal of Arid Meteorology    DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2014)-04-0665
Improvement and Application of Forest Fire - danger Forecast Model in Hebei Province  
FU Guiqin,ZHANG Wenzong,ZHAO Chunlei,ZHANG Jinman,GUO Rui
Journal of Arid Meteorology    DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006 -7639(2013) -03 -0579